DNV GL recently released its "Energy Transformation Outlook", predicting that global energy demand growth will continue to shrink from 2020 to 2028 and peak energy demand will be reached by 2030, and then will decline sharply. The global energy type will quickly shift to renewable energy sources. The company employs more than 3,400 energy experts and has a truly global perspective based on the entire energy value chain, covering the oil and gas industry, energy storage and power grids, and the renewable energy industry, with different forecasts for the 10 major world regions.
DNV GL estimates that there are three main reasons for the peak energy demand. "First, the assuming population growth is slightly lower than the United Nations forecast. We can use the IIASA / Wittgenstein population and global human capital center model because it better considers the impact of rising urbanization and education levels on fertility growth." "Second, we think GDP growth will be lower than projections from IEA and other oil companies. Although our projections are consistent with sources from other companies and institutions such as McKinsey, MIT and Norwegian National Oil Company, economists like to keep the growth at 3% to 3.5%, which we think is impractical. "" Once again, we are more optimistic about the potential for continued cost reductions for solar and wind power, and the growing electrification combined with the growth of and renewable energy will make energy systems more energy efficient, and saving significant energy. "
As the world's major energy sources are transformed from coal and petroleum to non-carbon, renewable energy and other new energy sources, high-carbon energy will be gradually replaced by low-carbon and non-carbon energy, and the average carbon content in global energy consumption will be gradually reduced. The world's energy consumption structure tends to be low-carbon and the energy transformation is coming soon.
